A stepwise approach for identifying climate change induced socio-economic tipping points

Climate change may cause socio-economic tipping points (SETPs), where the state of a system abruptly changes to fundamentally different state. While their potential existence is recognized, systematic method for policy-relevant research on SETPs lacking. This study introduces stepwise approach identification that supports decision making under uncertain climate and conditions. The demonstrated with stylized case collapse house prices (a SETP) in coastal city, due increasing flood risk from sea level rise. We explore four dynamic adaptive management strategies wide range possible futures. find scenarios very high rapid rise, real estate occur if market responds sudden perceived rather than gradually adjusting rational manner. Such can only be avoided proactive strategy when protection measures are implemented rapidly. Our guide future studies seeks move towards concept provides perspective action policy makers.